Second Trump tariffs

For the tariffs imposed in 2018 and 2019, see First Trump tariffs.

The second Trump tariffs are protectionist trade initiatives imposed by Donald Trump, the 47th president of the United States, principally in the form of tariffs imposed on foreign imports starting in 2025. Since long before he became president in 2017, Trump has promoted tariffs on imports to retaliate against countries he believes are "ripping off" the United States. Trump has incorrectly insisted that foreign nations pay the tariffs that he imposes, rather than the reality that American importers pay them.

Background

Mexico, China, and Canada are the three largest trade partners with the United States, accounting for 42 percent of the US$3 trillion imported by the U.S. in 2024. Tariffs on Chinese imports have existed since the 1700s, generating billions in revenue for years before Trump came into office.

History

Since the 1980s, Trump has argued that foreign nations were "ripping off" Americans on trade matters. After he became president in 2017, and again in 2025, he imposed tariffs against foreign nations in retaliation, incorrectly insisting those countries pay his tariffs, though the tariffs are actually paid by American importers. Despite corporate executives, politicians and economists insisting trade wars are destructive to American interests, Trump continued to maintain as of late 2024 that "tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented" and can promote world peace. The China–United States trade war Trump initiated with tariffs in 2018 was widely characterized as a failure for the United States.

Proposal

In November 2024, Trump pledged to impose a 25 percent tariff on all products imported to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico, a violation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement.

Implementation

On January 31, 2025, the White House announced that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico (except for Canadian crude oil and energy imports which will be subject to a ten percent tariff) and a ten percent tariff on imports from China. Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs the following day using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Canadian energy exports, including natural gas, hydroelectric power, and uranium, were made subject to a ten percent tariff; Peter Navarro, Trump's trade advisor, stated that the lower rate was to "minimize any disruptive effects". The order contains a clause that will increase tariffs if Canada, China, or Mexico retaliate. The tariffs will take effect on February 4. According to The Wall Street Journal, Canadian officials were formally notified that morning, though Mexican officials had not been informed.

Impact

United States

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that a 25 percent tariff, retained through 2029, would reduce the gross domestic product of the United States by US$200 billion. According to the Budget Lab at Yale University, American households will lose approximately US$1,200 in purchasing power. The Tax Foundation has also estimated that the tariffs would increase of U.S. tax revenue of $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, with the Mexican and Candian tariffs causing a tax revenue increase of $958 billion during the same time period.

Canada

Ontario premier Doug Ford stated that the tariffs would likely impact around half a million jobs in the province's automotive industry.

Mexico

Peterson Institute director of studies Marcus Noland said that the tariffs would cause deindustrialization in Mexico.

Responses

Canada

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he was prepared to quickly respond.

In an interview with CNN, Ontario premier Doug Ford argued that the proposed tariffs against Canada were "unjustified, unfair, and frankly illegal", and would hurt both Americans and Canadians. He stated that Canada would most likely retaliate, explaining that "It's unfortunate. We don’t want to do it. We'd rather have a strong trading partner with the U.S., build an Am-Can fortress. We want to ship down more products, more critical minerals, more oil. That's what we want to do."

On February 1, 2025, Trudeau announced in an address that Canada would impose retaliatory 25% tariffs on various U.S. goods totalling US$106 billion, including lumber, plastic, vegetables, and consumer goods such as alcohol, appliances, furniture, perfume, and sports equipment. It was also suggested that specific tariffs will target staple exports of specific Republican-led states, including Florida orange juice, Kentucky peanut butter, and Tennessee whiskey. Trudeau stated that "this is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians, but beyond that, it will have real consequences for you, the American people. As I have consistently said, tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk, potentially shutting down American auto assembly plants and other manufacturing facilities".

Individual provinces announced their own tariffs and restrictions as well; British Columbia premier David Eby announced that the BC Liquor Distribution Branch would immediately halt purchases of liquor from Republican-led states. Nova Scotia premier Tim Houston announced that tolls at the Cobequid Pass would double for commercial vehicles entering from the U.S., and that the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation would be directed to remove all U.S. liquor from store shelves. He also said that the province would limit access to provincial procurement for American businesses, stating that the province would focus on "finding new markets here at home." Quebec premier François Legault announced that the province would review and penalize all procurement contracts involving American suppliers.

Mexico

President Claudia Sheinbaum immediately ordered Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard to impose retaliatory tariffs and other non-tariff measures. She also called on Trump to engage in dialogue, saying that imposing tariffs would not resolve anything, and said that he had "slandered" her government by claiming it was allied with the cartels.

United States

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said that he was "concerned these new tariffs will further drive up costs for American consumers." The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board characterized the February 2025 tariffs on Canada and Mexico as "the dumbest trade war in history."

Companies

In a joint statement, lobbying groups for the liquor industries in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico expressed concern for retaliatory tariffs.